Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-20 2.454328 2.968057 3.546075 4.242086 5.054769 5.970917 7.078984
2025-04-27 1.789614 2.457068 3.291265 4.399756 5.821958 7.572146 9.873859
2025-05-04 1.405165 2.148710 3.163265 4.624017 6.643755 9.304161 13.032656
2025-05-11 1.078076 1.818874 2.912702 4.602777 7.095191 10.572449 15.710359
2025-05-18 0.813280 1.506297 2.608018 4.424184 7.262641 11.429518 17.877344
2025-05-25 0.614210 1.244514 2.319361 4.201550 7.304023 12.072842 19.762396
2025-06-01 0.498979 1.096476 2.181152 4.183872 7.640321 13.165645 22.389815
2025-06-08 0.415705 0.986146 2.083876 4.211713 8.040258 14.379049 25.292219
2025-06-15 0.344369 0.881007 1.974111 4.194426 8.350500 15.462291 28.062594
2025-06-22 0.268435 0.745312 1.777642 3.980591 8.277622 15.884978 29.764462
2025-06-29 0.224044 0.669541 1.687479 3.955637 8.540422 16.897149 32.528648
2025-07-06 0.187589 0.602917 1.603414 3.927699 8.788665 17.896544 35.336958
2025-07-13 0.171879 0.587831 1.635539 4.155760 9.576945 19.966824 40.245608
2025-07-20 0.153033 0.558898 1.630045 4.301230 10.215462 21.814414 44.895070
2025-07-27 0.140011 0.543405 1.654560 4.517644 11.023524 24.048057 50.414561
2025-08-03 0.118288 0.493815 1.582017 4.495615 11.319193 25.308101 54.190978
2025-08-10 0.094654 0.429146 1.454942 4.320259 11.255849 25.845362 56.615542
2025-08-17 0.074199 0.367165 1.320432 4.102081 11.065804 26.101556 58.498517
2025-08-24 0.062931 0.335370 1.266829 4.084720 11.336205 27.328274 62.385825
2025-08-31 0.054444 0.311408 1.231912 4.111966 11.714636 28.810483 66.883942
2025-09-07 0.046295 0.285288 1.183999 4.095031 11.982057 30.070972 71.003645
2025-09-14 0.036122 0.244382 1.075896 3.885648 11.741641 30.191746 72.744862
2025-09-21 0.030577 0.223518 1.032521 3.861214 11.971878 31.382531 76.830754